The rally in the USDX since Aug 10 seems to be nearing a short-term peak, particularly with the ascending wedge (that it's been in since Aug 10) nearing its apex. From the daily chart, one can see that the last 2 days of price action have been tightly confined, forming dojis, that suggest a reversal may be at hand. My near-term forecast (next 3-5 sessions) is for the USDX to pull back, and this can be seen in the bottoming action seen in the EURUSD and EURJPY. The EURJPY was particularly oversold, having fallen from above 114 in early Aug to just above 105 2 sessions ago. Its daily RSI also went below 30, and bullishly just crossed back above 30 yesterday. The USDJPY has been particularly difficult to trade in the last few weeks, as I've prematurely called a swing bottom on this pair repeatedly. Fortunately, stops have been placed in a somewhat disciplined manner. I will revisit this pair once it truly breaks its downtrend on the daily chart, as opposed to trying to pick the bottom. That being said, I do continue to believe that the USDJPY must be near a bottom, as its daily RSI has been hovering b/w 25 and 40 for 2 months now!
Looking at the 60min chart, I was fairly comfortable going long the EURUSD at 1.2699 and EURJPY at 107.4 when I did. I observed the EURUSD break above a downtrend resistance line (from Aug 6 - today) on the daily chart, and also noted the higher high of 2am EST today versus the highs from the previous 48hrs. The EURJPY has exhibited similar action, although as mentioned above, was more oversold than the EURUSD. The EURJPY on the 60min chart did not appear to want to pull back from its high a few hours ago, suggesting that the break in the daily downtrend resistance was significant enough to pull in the bulls on any brief pullback. At the time of my long entries, the 5min charts were looking good, w/ both exhibiting downtrending resistance line breaks, just around the time of my trades. The main concerns now to the very short-term thesis is how the 60min chart shows RSI approaching 60, and MACD lines that appear to want to crossover negatively. Of course, what I've observed time and time again, is how MACD lines can appear to want to cross negatively (or positively), only to resume their previous slope before approaching the crossover point.
I currently have a stop at 1.2705 on the EURUSD and 107.5 on the EURJPY.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
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