Wednesday, August 4, 2010

USDJPY Swing Opportunity Approaches

With non-farm payrolls out this Fri, and the EURJPY approaching oversold conditions, an attractive swing opportunity is emerging.

USDX
Wkly
Although 80 should provide some short-term support, the MACD and RSI aren't sufficiently oversold to call a bottom in this current 2 month downtrend.

Daily
MACD has tried bottoming in the last few days, while RSI has just entered oversold (<30) territory.  Allow the RSI to rise back above 30 and for MACD to bullishly crossover before going long USDJPY.


USDJPY
Wkly
Price: Closing in on Nov '09 low (and 15yr low) of 84.82
MACD: isn't quite bottoming yet; both lines still pointing down
RSI: sits at roughly 35.8, and is still pointing down
Stochastic: oversold at 6.4; wait for cross above 20 for long entry

Daily
Price: near support on late May-present declining wedge
MACD: appears oversold
RSI: sits at 34.7, and has been oversold in much of July (during which it crossed above 30 a few times);
currently pointed down
Stochastic: appears quite oversold and ready to bounce


No other pairs are sufficiently overbought/oversold on wkly charts to warrant a swing entry.

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