Monday, August 9, 2010

USDX Continues Short-Term Bottoming

The USDX is looking increasingly attractive on the daily chart, from a price action, MACD and RSI perspective.  The USDJPY should see some fireworks as soon as the BOJ makes its announcement (any moment in the next few hours).  Regardless of the BOJ announcement, the USDJPY appears to be technically oversold on the daily and wkly as mentioned earlier.  Fri's NFP saw a selloff on the USDJPY which brought it within a hair of the 84.8 15yr low.  Fri's low just shy of 85 may've been the major double bottom that'll propel the USDJPY significantly higher.  Fri, right before the NFP, my raised stop on my USDJPY long was taken out at a slight profit.  I'm currently looking to re-enter my long just below 85.85, and am waiting for the USDJPY to bottom on the hrly and 5min.

As for the EURUSD, it's looking increasingly close to a trend reversal, as is the GBPUSD and AUDUSD.  The EURUSD has just in the last few minutes broke its July-today uptrend support line.  It is oversold on the hrly and 5min though, and I am now awaiting a 1/3 to 1/2 retracement (of the losses from these last 24hrs) before going short.

The GBPUSD and AUDUSD are also oversold on the hrly and 5min charts, and need to bounce before they become attractive shorts in the next day or so.  The GBPUSD is the most overbought of the 3 short candidates (see daily), but is nowhere close to breaking its June-today uptrend support.  Keep a close eye on the AUDUSD daily as it approaches its uptrend support line at 91.  This will probably be the last short among the 3 short candidates.

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