Short Trades (EURUSD, GBPUSD) following Post-Fed Rally

Being in Singapore, please forgive me for jumping into bed shortly after entering my shorts on EURUSD and GBPUSD post-Fed @ 226am and 239am Singapore time, rather than updating this blog.  From now on, assume all blog references to time are in Singapore time, which is 12hrs ahead of New York.  Going into the Fed rate announcement, I decided to be flat on both the EURUSD and GBPUSD as their 5min charts suggested that they had still not sufficiently retraced the prior day losses, and were therefore more likely to rise (on the Fed news) from their still somewhat at the time, oversold conditions.

EURUSD
Having observed the break in the EURUSD July-August 10 uptrend support around midday yesterday, and the rise in the EURUSD daily RSI above and back below 70 on its daily RSI, the EURUSD was setting up perfectly as a short candidate.  Before shorting though, I wanted to wait for a 50% or 61.8% retrace of the 1.3335-1.3074 fall.  Sure enough, w/ the 215am Fed decision, the EURUSD began rallying, quickly approaching the 50% retracement level.  Because it was getting awfully late in the early morning my time, I grew impatient on the retracement, entering my short at 1.319 at 226am, which was just shy of the 50% retracement level of 1.3205, and the ultimate peak in the retracement at 1.3225.  In other words, I was wearing a 35 pip loss at the peak of the retracement.  Fortunately, the trade returned to being in my favor shortly after I went to bed.  The EURUSD peaked in its retracement soon after my short, and had I been more disciplined in waiting for the retracement to show clearer indications of ending, my short entry would've been achieved lower than my 1.319.  As of this writing, I have closed my EURUSD shrt (at 1.3044 (150 pip gain avg across my 2 a/c's), as the 5min chart suggests we've hit a short-term bottom ahead of the 430/530pm UK figures.  Will sit flat and await a short re-entry once we've retraced 38-50% of the down move of the last 48hrs.

GBPUSD
As remarked in yesterday's post, the GBPUSD was the most overbought of the 3 short candidates on my radar (EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD).  I based this observation on the fact that the GBPUSD held the distinction of being the only one of these 3 pairs to have climbed above its Jun-Aug 10 upchannel resistance. Similarly to the EURUSD, the GBPUSD 5min chart suggested that it was more likely to rise immediately following the 215am Fed announcement.  I decided to patiently wait for the shorting opportunity on a 50-61.8% retracement of the down move from 1.6.

USDJPY
Going into the Fed @ 215am (215pm EST), I was flat on USDJPY.  I earlier entered at 85.8 (11:49am), and closed my long at 85.86 (318pm), eeking out a slight profit, after noticing that the technicals on the 5min of the USDJPY weren't terribly in favor of a long going into the Fed decision.  Today, I've sat on the sidelines on USDJPY, preferring the far clearer short signals on the EURUSD and GBPUSD.

Game Plan for 430/530pm and 830pm
I'll sit flat going into 430pm, and will watch the GBPUSD carefully for any 38.2/50% retracement of the downward move since 1.600.  For the next few trading sessions, I'll likely only be taking opportunities in the new intramonth trend which is down.

The 830pm US figure'll be more important for my EURUSD, AUDUSD, EURJPY and ES (S&P500 mini) short ideas.  As w/ the GBPUSD, I'm waiting for a 38/50% retracement of their downmove of these last 48hrs, before initiating fresh shorts.